The brutal Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October, 2023 and the genocidal Israeli response thereto, have comprehensively and irrevocably broken the status quo with respect to the Question of Palestine.

The prevailing notions of Israel and Western elites that the oppression, systematic discrimination, and  denial of self-determination of the Palestinian people could be sustained into eternity have been shattered forever. One way this denial manifests itself is denial of the right of return of Palestinian refugees, while the discrimination they face amounts to apartheid—to different degrees dependent on whether they live in Israel proper, the Gaza Strip, West Bank, East Jerusalem, or the Palestinian diaspora.

Some Israeli and diaspora Jews have begun a process of reflection, including on what some of them refer to as the failure of Zionism (here and here), Israel’s self-destruction, an imperative for an exodus from Zionism, and its relationship to Judaism in the aftermath of 7 October.

For Palestinians, the events since October 7 have parachuted the Palestinian question back to the top of the international agenda. The unprecedented Hamas attack and the Israeli response have brought into stark focus the need to urgently revamp the Palestinian national movement or, more generally, the question of Palestinian representation—as a precursor to addressing the broader questions related to liberation and statehood from colonization, occupation, apartheid and, now, genocide.

For the Arab States, the events since October 7 have highlighted the risks of ‘normalizing’ relations with Israel prior to resolving the Palestine question, which continues to represent an open wound to the Arab soul and consciousness. More generally, the outpouring of extraordinary popular anger with respect to the ongoing genocide in Gaza—exacerbated by the lack of political will among Western elites to put a stop to it—and the unprecedented solidarity with Palestine and the Palestinian people in all four corners of the globe are reiterating that the unresolved Question of Palestine remains a permanent international responsibility. October 7 and its aftermath forces all of the above actors to engage in a fundamental rethink on the way forward with respect to all the key issues at stake.

Al-Nakba was the ‘catastrophe’ that saw the forced displacement and exile of three quarters of the Palestinian people as Israel was established in 1948. Since then, the rights, situation, and future of the Palestinian refugees, and those subsequently displaced, have represented the human dimension at the heart of the unresolved Palestine question. Palestinian displacement has been ongoing: after the 1967 War, another 350,000 to 400,000 Palestinians were forced to flee from Israel, followed by some 250,000 within or from the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) and some 700,000 from the Arab region during the subsequent decades. Forced displacement has been at the forefront in the current war in Gaza, with at least 1.7 million Gaza Palestinians internally displaced, many multiple times, and as many as 100,000 displaced into Egypt. Further displacement is taking place as a result of the ongoing Israeli ground operation in Rafah and renewed fighting in the north of Gaza.

UNRWA at a Crossroads

UNRWA, the UN’s Palestinian refugee agency, was set up in the aftermath of the Nakba and continues to be a lifeline for the millions of Palestine refugees that it supports through basic education, primary health care services, relief and social services, microfinance, infrastructure works, and other assistance. It was originally established upon the initiative of the United States to shift focus toward a resolution of the Palestinian refugee question from return—as required by international law and demanded by the UN General Assembly in late 1948—to integration into Arab host countries.

The agency has come under unprecedented attack by Israel since the end of January, accused by the Netanyahu government of serious breaches of UN neutrality. The unproven allegations made by Israel that twelve UNRWA workers were involved in the October 7 attacks resulted in suspensions of funding by the agency’s largest donors.

Although Israel had been occasionally attacking UNRWA from 1967 onwards, it is only since the onset of the current extreme rightwing Israeli government, and in particular since 7 October 2023, that the Israeli government appears intent on shutting down UNRWA’s operations in the OPT.

UNRWA’s future in Gaza is now in serious jeopardy after Israel informed the agency that it would prevent it from distributing humanitarian aid in northern Gaza, and has more generally ceased cooperation with it in the Strip. Even if the rift with Israel can be overcome, UNRWA’s future in Gaza is now inherently connected with the future of the Strip more generally. UNRWA’s future in the West Bank hangs in the balance after Israeli lawmakers submitted legislation to close down the agency’s operations in the city (and possibly the West Bank), and violent Israeli demonstrators torched its West Bank Field Office, forcing its temporary closure.

It is possible that Israel’s machinations might reduce the agency to a “rump UNRWA” confined to supporting Palestinian refugees in Jordan, Lebanon and Syria. UNRWA’s Commissioner-General recently observed that the Israeli attacks on the agency are not about its neutrality, but rather attempts to erase the Palestinian refugee question once and for all. Even though the question of refugees and their rights and historical claims are not dependent on UNRWA’s continued existence, the attacks underscore the current Israeli government’s attitude with respect to the possibility of ever entertaining a just and durable solution to the millions of forcibly displaced Palestinians.

The attacks on UNRWA should be seen also as a wider attack on the global refugee regime and the broader international humanitarian system as it evolved after WWII. Even though under UNHCR’s Statute, the cessation of its ability to assist and protect Palestinian refugees triggers the responsibility of the global refugee agency with respect to these refugees, to date no efforts have been made to extend the protections of the global refugee regime to them—including with respect to Palestinians who were able to flee to Egypt.

Beyond this, both Israel and the United States have made it clear that they envisage an approach to long-term humanitarian support in Gaza through privatization of aid deployment. Fogbow, a private Swiss-based humanitarian contractor founded by former senior U.S. military and intelligence personnel, has been contracted by Western donors to manage the Cyprus-based maritime relief operation in Gaza. It is now also reportedly favored to manage the deployment of relief supplies brought in through the new U.S.-built pier, making use of private Palestinian contractors and working in close cooperation with and under protection from the Israeli military. Israeli Prime Ministet Benjamin Netanyahu appears to increasingly favor a weakened Hamas in combination with a longer-term Israeli military presence in Gaza—with permanent Israeli army bases at the pier, the crossing points, and at the permanent barrier being constructed in Wadi Gaza.

Instead of being governed by the Palestinian Authority or the UN, Gaza may well turn into a dystopian “humanitarian” experiment characterised by privatization, militarisation, and authoritarianism, whereby eligibility for and deployment of aid is managed by paramilitary contractors, aided by artificial intelligence, under overall Israeli (and U.S.) control.

These ongoing and planned developments highlight the need for an urgent and fundamental rethink of the approach to the refugee question now compounded by the dramatic further internal and external mass displacement of Palestinians in Gaza. A comprehensive, multi-stakeholder approach is needed to the Gaza crisis, led by the UN Senior Humanitarian and Reconstruction Coordinator, with the displacement issue at its center. The existential pressures on UNRWA in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, further prompt a sharp reflection on the future of support to the Palestinian refugees in the oPt at large.

In our book, Palestinian Refugees in International Law and subsequent papers (here and here), rights expert and current UN Special Rapporteur for the oPt Francesca Albanese and I make the case for a fundamental paradigm shift with respect to the approach to the Palestinian refugee question. We envision a framework where the 2016 New York Declaration on Refugees and Migrants (NYD) serves as the basis for its implementation.

It is clear that the role and future of UNRWA cannot be considered in isolation as it has become part of a UN humanitarian and development system in the oPt comprising over a dozen agencies. A way forward to the current crisis cannot be found by individual agencies strategizing in isolation, with occasional turf battles and inefficiencies. If the United Nations is to remain relevant with respect to the Palestine question, and if it is to prevent the above dystopian scenario from becoming the reality of humanitarian aid—not just in Gaza but beyond, then this is the time for a forceful and fundamental reset. The opportunity and mandate offered by the NYD should be urgently seized. It has the potential to not only provide a way forward for UNRWA, but more generally to address the broader aspects of the Question of Palestine in the context of the current crisis and through a holistic and multidimensional approach.

A Comprehensive Response Framework for Palestinian Refugees

The NYD, unanimously adopted by the UN General Assembly in 2016 in response to the refugee crisis in Europe a year earlier, provides a powerful political reaffirmation of the legal and institutional international refugee regime that was put in place after WWII and subsequent decades, including the centrality of international law in protecting the human rights and fundamental freedoms of refugees, and the approach in promoting durable solutions for refugee situations. In the words of UN High Commissioner of Refugees Filippo Grandi, “The New York Declaration marks a political commitment of unprecedented force and resonance. It fills what has been a perennial gap in the international protection system—that of truly sharing responsibility for refugees”.

The Declaration underscores the importance of a systematic and comprehensive response in addressing refugee questions. It calls, among other things, for the development of a Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) for each large-scale refugee situation, including protracted ones. These CRRFs are to be developed through a multi-stakeholder approach, with a key role for national and local authorities, international organizations, international financial institutions, civil society, and, last but not least, refugees themselves. It also calls for addressing all aspects of a refugee response, including root causes, ending refugee status and statelessness through a combination of durable solutions and humanitarian assistance. CRRFs have already been adopted in Central America, among other places.

The NYD applies to all refugees, including Palestinian refugees, as evident from the number of references therein to UNRWA. In spite of this, to date no such framework has been developed for Palestinian refugees but doing so now could be a powerful way forward to address the current crisis. It would give new impetus to international action in favor of Palestinian refugees and displaced and need not wait for—and could help advance—a more positive outlook for the broader political process. It could also help UNRWA to overcome the current existential crisis.

The idea is for a CRRF for Palestinian refugees to first articulate the general legal framework for refugees and other displaced persons, with reference to the NYD, and then set out the specific rights that Palestinian refugees enjoy under the applicable binding international instruments, rulings from the ICJ, and other courts and relevant UN resolutions. Since there is often so much disagreement about the rights to which Palestinian refugees are entitled, it would be important to explicitly spell these out in a document that purports to provide a comprehensive international response to their situation as it continues to exist.

Elaborating a Comprehensive Response Framework for Palestinian Refugees (CRF-PR) would:

1. Restore the leading role of the United Nations with respect to addressing the Palestinian refugee issue and the broader Palestine question

The Middle East Peace Process and Oslo Accords turned the refugee issue into an essentially bilateral issue to be negotiated between Israel and the Palestinians, starting from the premise of a false equivalence between two vastly unequal parties. The same applies to other aspects of the unresolved Palestine question. This situation must end and the UN must resume its leading role as demanded by its permanent responsibility for the Question of Palestine.

2. Reestablish international law as the framework and “lighthouse” for resolving the various aspects of the Palestinian refugee question and the broader Question of Palestine. 

According to the international normative framework that emerged from WWII, ending the systematic violation of the Palestinian refugees’ right to return, restitution and compensation  and the Palestinian people’s rights to self-determination, freedom from foreign military occupation, colonialism, and apartheid should be inherent in any solution and cannot be a matter for negotiation. In this respect, the upcoming Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice on the legal consequences of Israel’s ongoing occupation of the oPt is expected to further underscore this point.

3. Adopt a multi-stakeholder approach in responding to the various aspects to the question of Palestinian forced displacement since 1948, including the current mass displacement inside Gaza, involving national and international actors, governmental and non-governmental, as emphasized by the NYD. 

The development of the CRF-PR could be led (initially) by the UN Senior Humanitarian and Reconstruction Coordinator or another senior UN envoy with strong involvement of UNRWA and UNHCR, each with respect to Palestinian refugees and displaced under their respective mandates. The Palestinian political leadership and the refugees must have a central and leading role in this process.

4. Reaffirm the applicable legal framework, as affirmed in relevant binding legal instruments, rulings of the International Court of Justice and other judiciary bodies, and applicable UN resolutions. 

A reaffirmation of the various rights Palestinian refugees enjoy under international law would help bring clarity of the status applicable, collectively and individually, to Palestinian refugees: as refugees, internally displaced, often stateless persons, and protected in situations of armed conflict and occupation, and as human beings.

5. Strengthen protection of Palestinian civilians through the deployment of a protective presence similar to UNRWA’s Refugee Affairs Officers program and related arrangements during the first intifada. 

This was also suggested in response to a request from the General Assembly in 2018 (UNGA res. ES-10/20). Such an arrangement should include special protective measures for Palestinian children, with 2023 having been the deadliest year on record and the current war in Gaza among the deadliest and most destructive in recent history.

6. Fill the durable solutions gap left by the demise of the UN Conciliation Commission for Palestine. 

Palestinian refugees need and deserve, like all other refugees, an international arrangement engaged not only in supporting their humanitarian needs but also in upholding their human rights, including to return, restitution, and compensation, as well as facilitating such other durable solutions that refugees may want to pursue. These are inalienable and non-derogable rights and have only become stronger with the passage of time and the further advancement of international law.

7. Align the search for solutions with international refugee law and practice.

A combination of the durable solutions that have helped resolve other protracted refugee situations could help do so for Palestinian refugees. There has been a long-held belief by Palestinian leaders and refugees, as well as representatives of Arab States, that pursuing solutions for Palestinian refugees more holistically would undermine their rights and claims towards Israel, and as such jeopardize the Palestinian cause, which is not the case at all.

Accordingly, Palestinian refugees and their political advocates should not fear pursuing solutions more closely aligned with the global international refugee regime, as many individual Palestinian refugees have done over the years and others demand. This would in fact be a way to empower the refugees, improve their life, and enable them to influence their political future.

Along with returning the Palestinian refugee question back to the UN and reestablishing the primacy of international law, this is the third element of the paradigm shift brought about by a CFR-PR.

8. Provide a platform to begin acknowledgment of the pain and trauma of the other as a necessary precondition for advancing solutions.

The development of the CRF-PR could provide a setting to initiate a public discussion on the root causes of the Palestinian refugee question: the still to be addressed forced displacement and dispossession since 1948. This would include both its origins, constituting elements, and evolution (the past), as well as the broader context of the unresolved dispute between Israel and the Palestinians (the present).

Securing UNRWA’s Future

UNRWA’s future in the oPt is very much in the balance. While it is a subsidiary organ of the UN General Assembly, Israel has no power to abolish or amend the agency’s mandate. But it is in a position to prevent UNRWA from continuing to operate in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, including from its East Jerusalem headquarters. UNRWA depends on Israel for visa and permits for its international and Palestinian employees, for overseas and local money transfers including salary payments, for imports of goods and services, for registration of vehicles, and for security of its operations. Under these circumstances, it is critical that UNRWA’s future and the delivery of its services to Palestinian refugees be considered in the broader context of a CRF-PR.

UNRWA’s pioneering human development strategy has proved to be a success as millions of refugees over the 75 years of its existence have benefitted from its education, health and other services. Refugees have also looked to UNRWA when crises strike, and the agency has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to respond timely and appropriately to recurrent emergencies, as has been the case during the current war in Gaza.

While both roles remain critical, Palestinians have indicated proof of refugee status as the main significance of registration with UNRWA. Refugees, the Palestinian leadership, and host governments see in UNRWA’s existence confirmation that the refugees’ unfulfilled rights remain an international responsibility. As mentioned earlier, this is exactly the reason why the current Israeli government wants to see UNRWA abolished.

The provision of basic services and emergency assistance could potentially be taken over by other actors, but there is no alternative for the agency’s protection mandate. Building on its existing role in protecting the rights of the Palestinian refugees, the agency should expand this role supporting the protection of their most critical rights, including civil, cultural, economic, political and social rights, as well as those related to return, restitution, and compensation. The agency should also further expand its role in supporting the various UN and other efforts at holding Israel and Hamas accountable to the gross violations of international criminal law perpetrated during the current and previous wars in Gaza (and in the West Bank).

In this context, UNRWA’s registration system has the potential to become the central archive and repository of evidence of the refugees’ historic claims. This would have a huge symbolic and practical impact for the refugees, especially once the registration system gets harmonized and synchronised with UNCCP records. The latter would connect property loss and damages in 1947/1949 to individual refugees and their families and descendants. UNRWA is in the process of integrating its registration system and other historic archives and refugee data maintained by the agency into a Palestine Refugee Data Center, an initiative that deserves strong support, especially by Palestinians in the region and beyond. In view of the vicious attacks on the agency, serious consideration should be given to move the Center to Europe, or another safe location at the earliest practicable opportunity.

The future of UNRWA and the Palestinian refugees it serves has never been more dire. In view of the events since October 7, and the vicious existential attacks on the agency, the “muddling through” approach of the past decades no longer works, and a fundamental reconsideration of the way forward must commence immediately. Seizing the opportunity afforded by the NYD will be difficult and face many challenges. But doing nothing whilst the situation of the refugees and displaced continues to deteriorate and UNRWA’s future hangs in the balance, with the potential danger this entails for the  global refugee regime and the broader international humanitarian system, carries far greater risks.

The successful development of a CRF-PR, reaffirming the historical rights of the Palestinian refugees, seeking practical ways for materialization of such rights, while also allowing solutions that are at present possible to be realized, would give the refugees and displaced a more secure present and a more hopeful future. It would support them in advancing their search for justice and accountability and in playing an active role in a platform that they have long been denied.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of Arab Renaissance for Democracy and Development.